We would like to share with you a part of vast amount of economic and market data monitored, reviewed and analysed by our team when making capital allocation and investment decisions. Below charts are provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’ FRED database, a great source of visual illustration of key economic factors shaping economy and the markets.
Real U.S. GDP Growth Rate Indicator.
Currently indicates the U.S. is growing at a slower rate but in positive territory.
U.S. Real Disposable Personal Income Growth Rate
This index enables us project consumer confidence indicators.
U.S. Corporate Profits
A major contributor to U.S. industrial investment, capital expenditures, employment, M&A, and stock market levels.
U.S. Inflation Rate Change
U.S. Industrial Production Index
New Housing Starts Permits
Key leading indicator of employment levels of a key construction section.
Leading U.S. Economic Indicator Index
Perhaps one of the most reliable leading (advance) indicators of potential U.S. economic downturns, points to continued U.S. economic growth over the next 6-12 months, at a slower rate.
U.S. Temporary Employment
Temporary employment total U.S. number is perhaps the most overlooked yet one of the best leading indicators of economic downturn.
U.S. Long- and Short-term Interest Rate Differential
This chart clearly states perhaps one of the most reliable predictors of economic downturns - yield curve inversions.
U.S. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
This chart states Federal Reserve's assets
U.S. Equity Asset Flows
As an important technical factor, this chart shows U.S. equity mutual funds, exchange-traded funds and corporate equities asset flows.
U.S. Balance of Payments Chart
U.S. Commercial Property Prices
U.S. Residential Real Estate Prices
A key indicator of household wealth and consumer confidence
U.S. Nonfinancial Corporate Debt Levels.
U.S. Nonfinancial corporate debt as a percentage of the market value of corporate equities.
U.S. Nonfinancial corporate business; debt as a percentage of net worth - equity
Interest Rate Spread Between U.S. Government and BBB-rated Corporate Bonds
Key indicator of the level of confidence investment community has in investment-grade corporate debt safety.
Interest Rate Spread Between U.S. Government and High-Yield (junk) Corporate Bonds
Key indicator of the level of confidence investment community has in junk bond corporate debt safety.
Retail Money Funds
Cash held by investors in money market funds
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index