We constantly monitor and analyse the charts below, sourced from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’ FRED database, a great source of visual illustration of key economic factors shaping economy and the markets.
Real U.S. GDP Growth Rate Indicator.
Currently indicates the U.S. is growing at a slower rate but in positive territory.
Leading U.S. Economic Indicator Index
Perhaps one of the most reliable leading (advance) indicators of potential U.S. economic downturns, points to continued U.S. economic growth over the next 6-12 months, at a slower rate.
U.S. Real Disposable Personal Income Growth Rate
This index enables us project consumer confidence indicators.
U.S. Corporate Profits
A major contributor to U.S. industrial investment, capital expenditures, employment, M&A, and stock market levels.
U.S. Long- and Short-term Interest Rate Differential
This chart clearly states perhaps one of the most reliable predictors of economic downturns - yield curve inversions.
U.S. Temporary Employment
Temporary employment total U.S. number is perhaps the most overlooked yet one of the best leading indicators of economic downturn.
U.S. Inflation Rate Change
U.S. Industrial Production Index
U.S. Balance of Payments Chart
U.S. Commercial Property Prices
U.S. Residential Real Estate Prices
A key indicator of household wealth and consumer confidence
U.S. Nonfinancial Corporate Debt Levels.
Interest Rate Spread Between U.S. Government and BBB-rated Corporate Bonds
Key indicator of the level of confidence investment community has in investment-grade corporate debt safety.
Interest Rate Spread Between U.S. Government and High-Yield (junk) Corporate Bonds
Key indicator of the level of confidence investment community has in junk bond corporate debt safety.
New Housing Starts Permits
Key leading indicator of employment levels of a key construction section.